MID’s Water Analysis by Reed Smith
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IMMINENT DISASTER TO OUR VALLEY and ECONOMY |
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MID “Proposed” WATER SALE to C&C of SAN FRANCISCO |
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THE ONLY WATER THAT CAN BE MANIPULATED is AGRICULTURE |
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Estimate for 2018 |
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| MAXIMUM MID Annual Allocation Tuolumne River |
310,000 AF |
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| Spillage from Oakdale Irrigation District into MID (actually zero) (6) |
0 AF |
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| Seepage/evaporation from Modesto Reservoir and System (1) |
(60,000) AF |
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| Agriculture Customer Use (Acre Feet = AF) (1) |
(191,000) AF |
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| City of Modesto Domestic Water Project Phase #1 (2) |
(35,000) AF |
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| Environmental Stewardship | ||||
| FERC Relicense of Don Pedro projected (Min.) (3)(4) |
(20,000) AF |
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| CA Water Resources Control (Min.) (3) |
(24,000) AF |
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| Bay/Delta (3) | ||||
| San Joaquin River Restoration (3) | ||||
| City of Modesto Domestic Water Project Phase #2 (3)(4) |
(35,000) AF |
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| CA Dept. of Housing and Comm. Dev.(5) | ||||
| Outflow (regardless of infrastructure improvements) |
(30,000) AF |
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Current Over-Commitment |
(85,000) AF |
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TOTAL DEMAND |
(395,000) AF |
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| NOTE: The only variable that can be manipulated is Agricultural Customer allocation | ||||
| There are 58,000 Acres eligible to receive ag water in the MID | ||||
| Asst. Gen Manager, Walt Ward has presented that the base ag allocation is 191,000 AF. | ||||
| HISTORICAL BASE LINE | ||||
| 191,000 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 3.293 AF / acre, or 39.5 acre inches / acre | ||||
| If MID has over committed our water by 85,000 AF, and the only source for adjustment is ag, | ||||
| WITH ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP AND MODESTO PHASE II TREATMENT PLANT | ||||
| Mod II/FERC | 191,000 AF + (85,000 AF) = 106,000 AF | |||
| Mod II/FERC | 106,000 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 1.83 AF / acre, or 21.93 acre inches / acre | |||
| WITH CCSF SALE |
(85,000) + (27,200) AF CCSF |
(112,200) AF |
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| Mod II/FERC/CCSF | 191,000 AF + (112,200 AF) = 78,800 AF | |||
| Mod II/FERC/CCSF | 78,800 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 1.36 AF / acre, or |
16.30 acre inches / acre |
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| If an almond crop requires 36 acre inches to produce a decent crop, how many acres will a | ||||
| grower need to own to fallow to provide enough water? |
2.21 acres |
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| Every grower in MID will have to fallow 59% of their land to grow a permanent crop. | ||||
| What banker is going to make a “Crop Line” loan or real estate loan on those values? | ||||
| NONE | ||||
| Growers will have to fallow |
34,071 acres |
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| At 3,000 lb almond crop (nonpereil + pollinator) @ $1.90/ lb | $5,700 / acre | |||
| With Modesto Chamber economic multiplication factor of 7X | $39,900 per acre | |||
| Times acres fallowed = ANNUALLY |
$1,359,441,047 |
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| Multiplied by MID’s proposed contract terms of 60 years = |
$81,566,462,827 |
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| (1) Walt Ward 3/5/12 Landowner Meeting MID | ||||
| (2) GM Short present to Modesto Chamber of Commerce, MID 2/17/12 | ||||
| (3) Tim O’Laughlin MID Board 2/14/12 | ||||
| (4) Tim O’Laughlin Modesto City Council 3/13/12 | ||||
| (5) Dave Thomas – 22,800 AF Requires City of Modesto to build 22,800 new homes | ||||
| as share of population growth to be completed by 2014 (State Law) | ||||
| (6) Walt Ward 3/5/12 Landowner Meeting MID – presented +16,000 AF = FALSE CLAIM | ||||
Eye On Modesto 