Eye On Modesto

Thoughts and observations about Modesto and Stanislaus County

MID’s Water Analysis by Reed Smith

IMMINENT DISASTER TO OUR VALLEY and ECONOMY

MID “Proposed” WATER SALE to C&C of SAN FRANCISCO

         

THE ONLY WATER THAT CAN BE MANIPULATED is AGRICULTURE

Estimate for 2018

         
MAXIMUM MID Annual Allocation Tuolumne River

310,000  AF

Spillage from Oakdale Irrigation District into MID (actually zero) (6)

0  AF

Seepage/evaporation from Modesto Reservoir and System  (1)

(60,000)  AF

Agriculture Customer Use  (Acre Feet = AF) (1)

(191,000)  AF

City of Modesto Domestic Water Project Phase #1  (2)

(35,000)  AF

Environmental Stewardship  
  FERC Relicense of Don Pedro projected (Min.) (3)(4)

(20,000)  AF

  CA Water Resources Control     (Min.) (3)

(24,000)  AF

  Bay/Delta (3)  
  San Joaquin River Restoration (3)  
City of Modesto Domestic Water Project Phase #2 (3)(4)

(35,000)  AF

  CA Dept. of Housing and Comm. Dev.(5)  
Outflow (regardless of infrastructure improvements)

(30,000)  AF

     

Current Over-Commitment

(85,000)  AF

     

TOTAL DEMAND

(395,000)  AF

         
NOTE:  The only variable that can be manipulated is Agricultural Customer allocation
         
There are 58,000 Acres eligible to receive ag water in the MID  
Asst. Gen Manager, Walt Ward has presented that the base ag allocation is 191,000 AF.
         
HISTORICAL BASE LINE  
  191,000 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 3.293 AF / acre, or                                39.5 acre inches / acre
If MID has over committed our water by 85,000 AF, and the only source for adjustment is ag,
         
WITH ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP AND MODESTO PHASE II TREATMENT PLANT
Mod II/FERC   191,000 AF + (85,000 AF) = 106,000 AF  
Mod II/FERC   106,000 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 1.83 AF / acre, or 21.93 acre inches / acre
         
WITH CCSF SALE  

(85,000) + (27,200) AF CCSF

(112,200)  AF

         
Mod II/FERC/CCSF 191,000 AF + (112,200 AF) = 78,800 AF  
Mod II/FERC/CCSF 78,800 AF ÷ 58,000 acres = 1.36 AF / acre, or

16.30 acre inches / acre

         
If an almond crop requires 36 acre inches to produce a decent crop, how many acres will a
grower need to own to fallow to provide enough water?

2.21 acres

Every grower in MID will have to fallow 59% of their land to grow a permanent crop.
What banker is going to make a “Crop Line” loan or real estate loan on those values?
        NONE
Growers will have to fallow

34,071  acres

At 3,000 lb almond crop (nonpereil + pollinator) @ $1.90/ lb $5,700 / acre
With Modesto Chamber economic multiplication factor of 7X $39,900 per acre
Times acres fallowed = ANNUALLY

$1,359,441,047

Multiplied by MID’s proposed contract terms of 60 years =

$81,566,462,827

     

 

 
     

 

 
    (1) Walt Ward 3/5/12 Landowner Meeting MID  
    (2)  GM Short present to Modesto Chamber of Commerce, MID 2/17/12
    (3)  Tim O’Laughlin MID Board 2/14/12  
    (4) Tim O’Laughlin Modesto City Council 3/13/12  
    (5) Dave Thomas – 22,800 AF Requires City of Modesto to build 22,800 new homes
      as share of population growth to be completed by 2014 (State Law)
    (6) Walt Ward 3/5/12 Landowner Meeting MID – presented +16,000 AF = FALSE CLAIM
Advertisements

Single Post Navigation

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s